SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, May 29, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

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                      We Need Your Feedback!

The Smoke Management Department is planning to “upgrade” this product so that it more effectively meets your needs.  To assist us with this project, we are requesting feedback from you!

Below are a few questions to help you consider what changes would be most beneficial for you.  All ideas are welcome!

Is the “Short-Term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

Is the “Long-term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

How could the “Dispersion” forecast better meet your needs?

Is the “Outlook” useful?  What would enhance it?

Are the “Burning Instructions” clear and concise?  How could they be improved for your use?

How do you access the forecast product (i.e., Email; web page; telephone recording)?

We are considering discontinuing or upgrading the phone recording of the forecast product.  Is that something you currently use?  Would you use it if you could get your specific forecast from it faster?

Please Email your feedback to: Peter.GJ.Parsons@odf.oregon.gov

Thank you!

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

On Saturday, the region will begin to dry out with showers coming to an end.  Weak upper-level troughing will keep temperatures near or below seasonable.  Winds will come from W-WNW.  Mixing heights will be good.

 

A pattern toward dry weather continues Sunday.  An upper-level ridge will be offshore with light winds aloft.  Temperatures will be near average and mixing heights will be high.  Winds will be mostly variable in direction though favoring N for transport winds.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Monday will be dry with temperatures rising above seasonable.  Flow aloft will be from W with upper-level ridging on the coast.  Winds will be variable in direction, somewhat SW for transport winds.  Mixing heights will be excellent.

 

Temperatures climb well above average on Tuesday with dry conditions.  Flow aloft will be from SW with upper-level ridging.  Winds will be variable in direction with transport winds more from SW.  Mixing heights will rise high.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 3100 - 4100 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, May 30 through June 1, 2026.

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For Saturday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through N of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the WSW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the NW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.