SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, May 20, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

On Thursday NW flow aloft weakens.  Expect sunny skies with temperatures moving to about 5oF above normal.  Mixing conditions remain excellent with as winds become N-NE in afternoon.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Flow aloft becomes SW-W on Friday through Sunday.  Little change in conditions will occur, sunny and warm with temperatures around 10oF above seasonal each day.  Burning potential is still excellent on all of the afternoons while transport winds are SW.   

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and throughout the afternoon.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.  Transport wind increases to N to NE at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.  Surface wind increases to N to NE at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, May 21, 2026.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NW through ENE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the NW through E in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.