FXUS66 KPQR 122207
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
307 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Minimal change in the forecast overall. Upper level
high pressure builds over the far northeast Pacific into 
western WA/OR over the next several days, ushering in a 
prolonged stretch of dry and hot conditions. Daytime 
temperatures increase significantly this weekend into early next
week, peaking Sunday and Monday with interior lowlands in the 
upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Low temperatures will not 
provide much relief from the heat. Heat related impacts are 
anticipated for much of the region with widespread Moderate to 
High HeatRisk. Temperatures will trend cooler for Wednesday 
onward with the return of onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Monday Night...High pressure continues
to build over the region today which is setting the stage for a
stretch of hot and dry conditions. Today has been fairly normal
with highs in the mid to upper 70s inland, and near 60 along the
coast. While temperatures were mild today, that will not be the
case over next several days. 

On Saturday, we will see highs rise into the 80s but the big
consideration is actually wind. The overall flow will transition
into an offshore pattern which will add a mechanical warming
mechanism to the environment. As the easterly flow comes up and
over the terrain, it will not only mix down warm air aloft, but
it will also compress the air at the surface and thus cause
increased warming. This flow pattern will also cause winds to
ramp up within the Columbia River Gorge, and within the
Willamette Valley. Overall, the wind speeds are not unheard of
for this time of year, but rather they are impactful to some of
the industries like wildfire. More details on this below. 

Temperatures rise further on Sunday into Monday as the ridge
axis aligns to the coastline. Daytime temperatures are expected  
to quickly increase into the upper 80s to low 90s on Saturday 
then to the mid to upper 90s for Sunday and Monday for the 
interior lowlands and portions of the OR Coast Range. The coast 
will be much warmer than normal as well, peaking in the 70s each
day and near 80 degrees on Sunday. With the newest forecast, the
HeatRisk for the coast has increased to Moderate and there was
enough confidence in an increased heat day to issue a Heat
Advisory for the coast. Probabilities for temperatures 
exceeding 95 degrees are around 70-90% between Salem and 
Vancouver and 50-70% for the rest of the interior lowlands on 
Sunday. There is less than a 5% chance for the Cowlitz Valley
lowlands and Gorge. On Monday, those probabilities for 95
degrees F rise considerably with the NBM showing around a 
85-99% chance of temperatures greater than 95 degrees F in the
Valley and around 30% in the Longview area. With Monday being
the hottest day in the forecast, there is around a 50% chance of
temperatures of 100 degrees or more from Salem northward.

Something we continue to monitor are the overnight low
temperatures. Typically we will see cooling overnight that
brings much needed relief. However, in this pattern we are
seeing very little as overnight lows are lingering around 65
degrees F in the interior lowlands where we see the highest
daytime temperatures. Low temperatures could even remain 
above 70 degrees in some locations with a 30-40% chance for the
greater Portland-Vancouver Metro area Sunday night into Monday 
morning and less than a 10% chance on Monday night into Tuesday
morning.

As previously mentioned, there are some fire weather concerns in
areas with cured grasses and finer fuels Saturday into Monday 
due to hot, dry, and breezy conditions. The thermal trough will 
bring breezy conditions within the western Columbia River 
Gorge/Cascades gaps and the Willamette Valley Saturday through 
Sunday night. As daytime highs increase, relative humidities 
will also decrease to near critical levels. Based on feedback 
from area partners, fuels are not quite cured enough to consider
any Red Flag Warnings at this point, but there is uncertainty 
on how the fuels will be impacted by the continuous days of dry 
and hot conditions. Currently, there is around a 15-30% chance
of relative humidity being below 25% and winds being greater
than 15 mph on Saturday and Sunday. Be aware of potential 
ignition sources such as vehicle chains dragging on the 
pavement, hot vehicle components, sparks created by power tools,
and cigarette butts as all of these could easily result in the 
ignition of cured grasses and dry, fine fuels. Live vegetation 
and larger fuels may not have enough time to dry out prior to 
the dry and breezy conditions, but this is a variable that is 
being closely monitored by our State and Federal Fire Partners.
														-27


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...Ensemble guidance
indicates high pressure continues Tuesday with heights 
beginning to lower along with 850 mb temperatures, which would 
allow for lowering temperatures on Tuesday. However, there is 
uncertainty in the forecast spread of both of these elements, 
leading to uncertainty in the high temperature for Tuesday. 
Additionally, it is not uncommon for models to degrade highly 
amplified ridges such as this one too early in the extended 
forecast period. There is no robust weather system in the models
that is causing the lowering heights, so there is the potential
that the high pressure may not break down as much as ensembles 
indicate on Tuesday. NBM still indicates warm daytime 
temperatures at least in the upper 80s for the interior
lowlands. Ensembles are in good agreement that the surface 
thermal trough over OR will break down sometime Monday into Tuesday,
so Tuesday is not expected to be quite as warm for the coast 
and Coast Range. With the flattening ridge, we there is the
potential for a more unique wind direction pattern though. We
will see a transition to northwesterly winds which will usher in
cooler air to the northern portions of the forecast area while
the southern zones will remain warmer. Therefore, there may be a
5 degree spread between the north and south on Tuesday. But, if
the ridge remains amplified, that difference will be less
significant. Either way, past heat events have shown that 
impacts from the heat can continue despite a cool- down, 
especially since morning low temperatures are expected to remain
very warm Tuesday morning.

Ensemble guidance indicates the high pressure axis shifts west
back over the E Pacific Wednesday and Thursday as a strong upper
trough digs into the Midwest. However, uncertainty in the
strength of the trough leads to uncertainty in the high pressure
over the Western US/E Pacific. There is high confidence that
temperatures will be quite cooler than Sunday and Monday, but
50-60% of ensemble members still keep just enough high pressure
over the region for high temperatures to remain in the low to 
mid 80s for the interior lowlands. 						-HEC


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions under clear skies across the airspace 
through at least the remainder of the TAF period. High pressure 
offshore will maintain northerly winds. Expect 7-10 kt winds 
across the airspace with gusts up to 25 kt along the coast. Winds 
decrease to less than 6 kt around 07Z-10Z Saturday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR under clear skies through the at least
the remainder of the TAF period. Northerly winds 7-10 kt, with 
winds decreasing to less than 6 kt around 07Z-10Z Saturday. /42

&&

.MARINE...Expect a typical summertime pattern persist into next 
week as high pressure builds offshore. Diurnal northerly winds 
will strengthen, peaking each afternoon and evening. Expect winds
of 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt south of Cape Falcon on Friday,
increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts on Saturday. 
Overnight, wind gusts may fall below Small Craft Criteria for the 
inner water zones, but still expecting gusts up to 25 kt for the 
outer waters. Will maintain the current suite of Small Craft 
Advisories, but they could get extended through Sunday as there is
minimal changes in overall conditions. Seas 4-7 ft at 9-11 
seconds with a persistent westerly swell. 

Long-range guidance brings a more active weather pattern towards
the end of next week. Which could result in seas near 10 ft as
well as gusts up to 30 kt, but overall confidence in this pattern
change is low at this time. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures and warm low temperatures for Sunday, 
June 14

				 High Temperatures:	 Warm Low Temperatures:
Portland Int'l	 89F (1988)			 62F (1985)
Vancouver, WA 	 93F (1986) 		 61F (1931)
Hillsboro 		 96F (1961) 		 60F (1963)
McMinnville 	 93F (1986) 		 59F (1936)
Salem 			 92F (1961) 		 59F (1936)
Eugene 			 92F (1914) 		 57F (1993)
Astoria 		 86F (1914)			 58F (1972)

Record high temperatures and warm low temperatures for Monday, 
June 15

				 High Temperatures:	 Warm Low Temperatures:
Portland Int'l	 95F (1966)			 60F (1969)
Vancouver, WA	 95F (1930, 1966)  	 62F (1961)
Hillsboro		 99F (1961)			 60F (1963)
McMinnville		 96F (1961)			 59F (1936)
Salem			100F (1966)			 59F (1931)
Eugene			 96F (1966)			 60F (1961)
Astoria			 91F (1966)			 58F (1997)

Record high temperatures and warm low temperatures for Tuesday, 
June 16

				 High Temperatures:	 Warm Low Temperatures:
Portland Int'l	 95F (1958)			 60F (2012)
Vancouver, WA	 92F (1961)  		 67F (1966)
Hillsboro		100F (1961)			 65F (1961)
McMinnville		 98F (1961)			 59F (1966)
Salem			 97F (1961)			 61F (1961)
Eugene			 95F (1961)			 62F (1961)
Astoria			 87F (1958)			 59F (1997)

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ101>103.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for 
     ORZ104>108-113>119-121>125.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday 
     for ORZ109>112-120.
WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for WAZ201.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for 
     WAZ202>205-208-210.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday 
     for WAZ206-207-209.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ252-272.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ253-273.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KMFR 122348
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
448 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...

A marine layer will bring a chance (40%) of IFR ceilings to KOTH
overnight. Otherwise, this cycle will be noted by mostly VFR
conditions. Breezy wind speeds this afternoon are expected to
diminish around sunset.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026/ 

KEY MESSAGES...

 *Warming, drying trend to close out this week and into this
  weekend with temperatures jumping to well above normal levels.
  Even some unusual warmth reaching coastal locations (potential
  highs in the 90s in Brookings Saturday and low 80s Coos
  Bay/North Bend Sunday).

 *Heat wave Sun-Tue with upper 90s and 100+ heat expected inland
  west side valleys and in the upper 80s to mid 90s over the east
  side. 

 *Some cooling mid-late next week, but still above normal. 

 *No rain chances next 7 days, though we'll be keeping an eye out
  for t-storm potential at the end of the heat wave next week.

DISCUSSION...Once again, sunny skies prevail over the entire
forecast area this afternoon and temperatures are responding to 
the higher heights and warmer air aloft with most areas 2-6F 
warmer than 24 hours ago. The warmth has been felt all the way to 
Brookings, where NE winds channeling down the Chetco river sent
the temperature to 88F earlier at the airport. The agrimet site 
closer to the ocean was holding around 70F. 

The upper ridge responsible for the warm up is building out 
around 130W and this is inducing a surface thermal trough along 
the NorCal coast, extending northward into SW Oregon. We expect 
the strongest offshore winds with the thermal trough over the 
Siskiyou Mtns and coast ranges of SW Oregon tonight into Saturday 
morning. So, this means little ocean influence down there and less
cooling than recent nights. It also means that Saturday will 
probably be even hotter in Brookings due to the lack of onshore 
marine influence. Models have been about 5-10F too low with temps 
there the last 2 days. So, it'll probably end up in the low to 
mid 90s based on current model soundings even though models only 
give that about a 10% chance of occurrence. A heat advisory
remains in effect there through Saturday evening.

Inland, temperatures will rise by 3 to 7 degrees over the 
previous day each afternoon Sat/Sun. The upper level ridge will
weaken slightly Saturday night as a trough interrupts the flow 
briefly, then the ridge rebuilds quickly and remains overhead 
through the first part of next week. Expect the peak of heat wave
Sun/Mon/Tue with daytime highs across the area of 20 to 25 
degrees above normal for early to mid June. Some records will be 
challenged or broken. With NWS HeatRisk showing widespread 
moderate impacts and smaller areas of major heat impacts, we've 
issued heat advisories for the remainder of the west side (also 
including the Mt. Shasta region). The details can be viewed at 
PDXNPWMFR. Expect highs of 90-100F in many locations with some 
west side valleys 100-105F and up to 110F in western Siskiyou 
County. We haven't added east side areas yet, but may add them too
with potential advisories Mon/Tue. Recent trends in the guidance 
suggest that there will be some cooling from the NW Tuesday as the
thermal trough shifts farther inland. As such, the advisories for
Coos and Douglas counties end a bit sooner than the rest.  

The ridge is expected to flatten a bit at midweek. This could be 
delayed by as much as a day, as these patterns typically are, 
which will let temperatures cool slightly through the rest of next 
week. However, temperatures are still expected to remain above 
normal. Of note, we also tend to see an increased risk for 
thunderstorms on the back side of heat waves. Models keep the 
area dry at the end of this one, but there are some hints of 
instability starting to appear in some runs as early as Wednesday
afternoon, but moreso Thursday afternoon, mainly over Modoc and 
Siskiyou counties. The limiting factor will be atmospheric 
moisture, which appears lacking as of now, and a clear trigger to 
set off convection. So while chances are very low (~10%) now, we 
can not rule out some lightning around the middle-latter half of 
next week. Confidence should improve as we get closer to the time 
period in question, and model better resolve the situation. 
-Spilde/BPN 

AVIATION...12/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the region 
and will do so through the TAF period for most locations. Expect 
another round of breezy north to northwest winds this afternoon, 
strongest along the coast where gusts of 20 to 30 kt will be common. 
Some patchy IFR/LIFR marine stratus could return to portions of the 
coast north of Cape Blanco tonight, including at North Bend, but 
should quickly clear to VFR early Saturday morning. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Friday, June 12, 2026...A thermal 
trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very 
steep wind-driven seas across the southern Oregon coastal waters 
through this weekend. The worst conditions are expected south of 
Cape Blanco, where gales and very steep seas will persist through 
Saturday. Winds ease below gales Saturday night, but remain above 
advisory criteria with steep fresh swell persisting into Monday. 
Additionally, as winds weaken Saturday night, a wind reversal is 
likely south of Gold Beach and within 30 nm of shore where marine 
stratus will surge northward, bringing reduced visibilities. 

The thermal trough pattern rebounds Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing 
the return of strong north winds and steep to very steep wind driven 
seas through much of next week. /BR-y

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 PM PDT Friday, June 12, 2026...
Rapid warming and drying is expected to continue into this 
weekend. This will result in an early season heat wave that will 
last into early next week. Temperatures will continue to increase,
peaking Sunday to Tuesday with daytime highs about 20-25 degrees 
above normal. This will likely result in some triple digit 
readings for the valleys west of the Cascades, but especially 
western Siskiyou County, where it could get to around 110F. 
Minimum relative humidities will also trend lower (bottoming out 
in the 10-20% range for most areas) -- though RHs could even drop 
into single digits at times over the East Side deserts. Meanwhile,
broad north through east flow will produce moderate to poor RH 
recoveries over upper slopes/ridges each night, especially over 
the Klamath mtns, Siskiyous, and Cascades. A period of gusty 
offshore E-NE winds is expected tonight into Saturday morning over
the Siskiyou Mtns and coast ranges with peak gusts in the 25-35 
mph (40 mph?) range. This could repeat Saturday night, but looks 
like it will be more over the inland mountains since the thermal 
trough will gradually shift inland. Poor ridge RH recoveries are 
most likely Saturday night. Also some stronger northerlies could 
channel through the Goose Basin near Lakeview tonight-Sunday. 

The typical diurnal afternoon N-E breezes could again become 
gusty at times Saturday. While critical conditions are not 
expected within the current forecast, localized conditions could 
get close, especially considering the low teens and potential 
single digit minimum humidities during the peak of the heat wave. 
Undoubtedly, this period of hot and dry weather will continue to 
move the needle toward higher fire danger as we head into next 
week.

Also of note, once the heat begins to ease midweek, we will need 
to keep an eye out for possible thunderstorms. Model guidance is 
not currently showing any significant convection chances through
Wednesday. But, there continue to be hints in the various model 
suites, and thunderstorms do typically accompany the breakdown of 
a heat wave in this area. There is at least a very slight 
potential (~10% chance) with some guidance showing convection 
near the Sierra, which could affect SE sections of our forecast 
area toward Thu/Fri next week. Best chance focused on far 
northern California and the East Side. Confidence remains low 
right now, but we will update the forecast as necessary over the 
coming days. -Spilde/BPN 

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for 
     ORZ021>026. 

CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for 
     CAZ080>082. 

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday 
     for PZZ356-376. 

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370. 

     Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KPDT 130001
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
501 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming and drying trend extends into next week.

- Breezy weekend winds will increase early next week.

- Windy and dry conditions elevate fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar and visible satellite imagery shows dry conditions 
under clear skies. This is in response to an upper level high 
pressure system that is strengthening offshore today before 
slowly moving onshore late Saturday and crossing through the 
Pacific Northwest on Sunday. A warming trend will ensue as the 
warm and dry airmass associated with the high pressure ridge 
moves over the area. High temperatures will reach into the low 
to mid-80s today, middle to upper 80s Saturday, low 90s Sunday,
and into the middle to upper 90s Monday and Tuesday across 
lower elevations of the Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain foothills,
Columbia Gorge, and Central Oregon. High temperatures Monday 
and Tuesday are about 15 degrees above normal for this time of 
year. Overnight relief will be minimal as morning lows Monday 
and Tuesday will only dip into the lower to middle 60s across 
lower elevations of the Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain foothills,
Columbia Gorge, and the Yakima Valley. As a result, widespread 
moderate (2 of 4) HeatRisk is expected Monday, with isolated 
areas on Sunday and Tuesday. Probabilistic HeatRisk suggests an 
80-100% chance of Moderate HeatRisk being reached on Monday 
across these areas, with some areas along the Gorge, Tri-Cities,
and Yakima included in a 40-60% chance of Major (3 of 4) 
HeatRisk. There are some model inconsistencies with the strength
and timing of the ridge with 45% of members suggesting a weaker
or later ridge progression onshore. However, these differences 
are rather minor, and should only result in temperature 
differences of 2-4 degrees. As confidence grows, so does the 
potential for heat products being issued as either an advisory 
or warning. At this time, an advisory is probable (50-70%) 
Monday across the Columbia Gorge, Yakima Valley, and Central 
Oregon, depending on the introduction of CAMs guidance over the 
next 24 hours. 

The ridge slides onshore over the weekend and suppresses on
Monday due to an incoming upper level trough from the northwest.
The pressure gradient will tighten between these two synoptic 
features late Monday and Tuesday, enhancing winds across the 
area. The strongest winds are expected to occur between Tuesday 
afternoon through Wednesday morning as gusts up to 65 mph will 
be possible through the Kittitas Valley, and up to 55 mph over 
the Simcoe Highlands, Columbia Gorge, north-central Oregon, and 
the Blue Mountain foothills. The NBM advertises a 30-50% chance 
of high wind warning level wind gusts (>58+ mph) through the 
Kittitas Valley and a 50-70% chance of advisory-level (>45+ mph)
wind gusts over the remaining areas of the Columbia Gorge, 
Simcoe Highlands, and the Blue Mountain foothills. The 
uncertainties in timing and strength of the incoming trough and 
attendant cold front also relate to confidence in these wind 
values, with 25% of members highlighting higher winds than the 
current forecast and 30% of members swinging in the other 
direction of weaker winds. This will have to be analyzed further
as the event nears and details from short-term guidance can be 
assessed. 

The combination of warm temperatures, dry conditions, and high
winds provide elevated fire weather concerns that peak on
Tuesday. Even though afternoon humidity values hover in the
lower to middle teens through Monday, the lack of enhanced 
winds coinciding with these values suppresses fire weather 
concerns. However, the passing of a cold front Tuesday will 
bring windy conditions, moderate (30-50%) overnight humidity 
recoveries, and afternoon humidities in the middle to upper 
teens across some zones that have receptive fuels. These would 
include areas of Central Oregon and the Lower Columbia Basin. 
Timing looks to be most of the day on Tuesday after middle to 
late morning. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast at all sites for the next 24 hours.
Winds will be diurnally driven, periodically breezy and/or 
gusty during the afternoon and evening hours and lighter 
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As stated in the primary forecast discussion, fire weather 
concerns peak Tuesday across much of the Columbia Basin
(WA/OR691) and Central Oregon (OR700, OR704, and OR705). These 
zones encompass all currently declared fire weather zones, as
fuels within these zones have been found to be receptive to
carry and spread fire. There are isolated pockets of fire
weather concerns over the weekend and even into Monday, 
primarily related to areas of north-central Oregon (OR703) and 
southern Blue Mountains/foothills, (SW OR691) middle to late 
afternoon. The passing of a cold front on Tuesday will also lead
to an increase in instability and shifting wind directions 
along the frontal boundary. This may warrant a Fire Weather 
Watch being issued in the next 24-48 hours related to Tuesday's 
event (50-60% confidence). 75

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
PDT  48  84  49  87 /   0   0   0   0 
ALW  53  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0 
PSC  53  88  56  91 /   0   0   0   0 
YKM  53  87  56  91 /   0   0   0   0 
HRI  51  87  54  90 /   0   0   0   0 
ELN  49  82  53  87 /   0   0   0   0 
RDM  44  83  47  86 /   0   0   0   0 
LGD  45  81  47  84 /   0   0   0   0 
GCD  43  83  45  87 /   0   0   0   0 
DLS  56  89  61  93 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
OR...None.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS65 KBOI 122356
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
556 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry through Monday.
 
- Tuesday is hot with gusty winds likely.

- Remaining dry but not as hot starting Wednesday with gusty
  afternoon winds continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/...
Issued 230 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A weak front will kick through the region this evening bringing
gusty winds to portions of e-central Oregon and the lower Snake
Plain of Idaho. Gusts of 25-35 mph will impact Baker and 
northern Malheur counties in Oregon and the Weiser basin and 
along the Snake River in Idaho through about midnight. For the
weekend, an upper ridge off the West Coast will keep our area 
under northwest flow. Dry and stable air aloft will cap any 
potential for precipitation development. Will see little change
in temperatures from today to Saturday. More notable warming 
will show up on Sunday as the ridge axis reaches the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
Issued 230 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
Guidance remains in agreement on synoptic pattern dominated by
an upper-level ridge over Pacific and West Coast and broad low 
pressure over Canada. The boundary between these two systems is 
an area of drying, warming, and clear conditions with gusty 
afternoon winds. Monday and Tuesday climb several degrees each, 
with Tuesday being the warmest and driest day in the forecast. 
The Snake Plain and high desert of SW Idaho and SE Oregon will 
see afternoon high temperatures in the mid to low 90s on 
Tuesday. At the same time on Tuesday, a shortwave in the 
Canadian low skims our region and briefly strengthens the upper 
flow and surface wind speed. The current forecast has 30-40 mph 
gusts coincident with very hot temperatures and RHs in the 10s 
and single digits. This will lead to a potentially critical fire
weather pattern, assuming the forecast holds firm. Later in the
week, a close low amplifies and works into the ridge area 
dropping temperatures slightly from 15 degrees above normal on 
Tuesday to 5-10 degrees above normal Wednesday through Friday. 
Winds continue to gust 20-30 mph in the upper Snake Plain 
through this period, and as the low approaches the chance for 
thunderstorms along the NV border increases Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday through Sunday/...
Issued 555 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026

VFR, few high clouds. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 
20-35 kt through early AM, then variable 5-15 kt rest of Sat 
AM. Becoming NW-NE 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt Sat afternoon.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW-N 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR, few high clouds. Surface winds: W-N 5-15 kt. Gusts to 20-
25 kt will taper off around sunset and return Sat afternoon.

Sunday Outlook...VFR and passing high clouds. A few afternoon 
mountain cumulus. Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt Sunday AM, then NW-
NE 5-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt in the afternoon.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.

OR...None.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

FXUS66 KSEW 130343
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion 
National Weather Service Seattle WA 
843 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level ridge will move onshore this weekend into early 
next week. A heat advisory continues for much of western Washington 
for widespread moderate HeatRisk as highs climb into the 80s and 90s 
on Sunday and Monday. Fire danger will also become elevated as 
relative humidities dip with offshore flow. The high will weaken 
midweek for increasing onshore flow and cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Strong upper level ridging continues to build into the region this 
evening. Thermally induced low pressure over Western Oregon tonight 
will continue to expand north and westward on Saturday with the low 
level flow flipping weakly offshore. NBM high temperatures in the 
short term, particularly around central Puget Sound, looked a bit on 
the low side. So, high temperatures were given a modest boost. This 
puts Seattle metro in the mid 80s tomorrow and a degree or two 
either side of 90 for Sunday/Monday with regional high temperature 
records in jeopardy. The rest of the forecast is unchanged at this 
time. Previous discussion follows with updates to marine/aviation 
portions.  27

It's a dry and mostly sunny day across much of western
Washington this afternoon. Satellite has a few areas of clouds
over the Cascades, and Olympics, and some low stratus around 
Neah Bay. Quite a few places in the lowlands have climbed into 
the 70s this afternoon. A few locations west of Olympia/Chehalis
Valley may track towards 80 this afternoon. Otherwise, only 
minor HeatRisk today with the temperatures, with winds out of 
the north around 5-10 mph. Lows tonight drop down to around 50 
to 55.

The main story remains warm, and dry air going into the weekend,
and into Monday across western Washington. An upper level ridge
building offshore will begin to move inland this weekend, with
the axis overhead by Sunday evening. A thermal trough is also
expected to build along the coast, which will in turn make the
flow more offshore in the overnight periods. Winds will turn
more out of the east, but most places will see light winds
overnight (with the exception of the west Cascades and Olympic
slopes where a few gusts up to 20 mph may occur). During the
days, the winds will turn to the north/northwest 5 to 10 mph, 
with Saturday being breezy in much of Puget Sound as winds pick 
up to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. 

Now for the heat: Saturday will be the cooler of the two weekend
days, but will still be quite a bit warmer to Friday, as highs
approach the mid 70s into the upper 80s (with a couple low 90s
in areas west of Olympia). HeatRisk increases to moderate for a
large swath of the south/southwest interior, but remains minor
for the remainder of the lowlands. Lows will drop into the mid
and upper 50s Saturday night into Sunday. Sunday will be the
warmest day of the weekend, with highs around 80 to near 100 in
the southwest interior. All of the lowlands will see moderate
HeatRisk impacts, with a few isolated instances of major
HeatRisk (but this has decreased slightly to 20-40% with the 
latest forecast update due to low temperatures dropping a couple
degrees to around 60). Nevertheless, the Heat Advisory will
continue for the emphasis of those spending time outside (who
are sensitive to extreme heat) to take breaks in the air
conditioning/shade, and staying hydrated. 

HPR

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface thermal trough deepens inland with highest surface 
temperatures on Monday. Widespread moderate HeatRisk remains likely 
on Monday, with more highs likely to break 90 in the interior. 
Monday evening, this thermal trough will begin to weaken and 
disorganize. Overnight temperatures have cooled a couple degrees, 
but will still likely range from the upper 50s to low 60s. Tuesday 
will be much cooler due to this weakening of the thermal trough, 
bringing winds with a northwesterly component. A few gusty winds 
will be possible on Tuesday. The upper level ridge that had built 
over Western Washington shifts inland on Tuesday, causing temporary 
zonal/onshore flow until a upper level trough pushes in on Thursday, 
keeping temperatures cool through the end of the week.

HPR/NW

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level ridging centered just offshore will continue to amplify 
into Saturday with northwest flow aloft over Western Washington. The 
low level flow will be northerly or weakly offshore into Saturday 
afternoon. The air mass is dry and stable with clear skies and VFR 
conditions in place. 

KSEA...Clear skies. Surface winds northerly 7 to 10 knots will 
become northeasterly 5 to 7 knots overnight then rise again to 
northerly 8 to 12 knots Saturday afternoon.  

27

&&

.MARINE...
Broad surface high pressure will remain centered over the offshore 
waters into early next week. Thermally induced low pressure over 
Western Oregon will expand north and westward on Saturday for 
periods of light offshore flow Saturday into Sunday. The thermal 
trough will shift into the interior of Western Washington Sunday 
night with onshore flow increasing across the coastal waters. A 
typical summertime pattern of varying degrees of onshore flow will 
be in place early next week with high pressure offshore and lower 
pressure across the interior of the Pacific Northwest. Weak systems 
passing well north of the region will induce enough onshore flow for 
possible gales in the central and east strait Monday evening and 
again on Tuesday. 

Coastal seas will remain well under 10 feet through the weekend 
before building to around 9 or 10 feet on Tuesday.


27

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drying trend over the area the next few days with elevated fire
weather concerns beginning Saturday and lasting into Tuesday. 
Upper level ridge building this weekend with the low level flow
turning offshore Saturday night. Highs warming into the 80s 
Saturday, 80s to lower 90s Sunday and for the interior 80s to 
mid 90s Monday. Relative humidity values lowering in the drier 
locations, like the Southwest Interior, into the teens both 
Sunday and Monday afternoon. Even though fine fuels have not 
reached critical thresholds, this rapid drying will create 
elevated fire concerns especially for dry grassy/shrubby areas, 
as well as piles of dead fuels. Offshore flow Sunday into Monday
will prevent good relative humidity recoveries overnight. 
Relative humidities will improve with the return of onshore flow
Tuesday. Winds will become particularly gusty, with portions of
the coast/mountains/south interior seeing west to northwest 
wind gusts up to 20 to 30 mph. Low level onshore flow and 
cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will ease fire 
weather concerns the middle of next week. Felton/HPR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for City 
     of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern 
     Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside-
     Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills 
     and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-
     Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King 
     Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis 
     Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-
     Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-
     Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower 
     Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern 
     Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King 
     Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern 
     Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-
     Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia 
     and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan 
     County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern 
     Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.

PZ...None.

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