SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, June 16, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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                      We Need Your Feedback!

 

The Smoke Management Department is planning to “upgrade” this product so that it more effectively meets your needs.  To assist us with this project, we are requesting feedback from you!

 

Below are a few questions to help you consider what changes would be most beneficial for you.  All ideas are welcome!

 

Is the “Short-Term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

Is the “Long-term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

How could the “Dispersion” forecast better meet your needs?

 

Is the “Outlook” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

Are the “Burning Instructions” clear and concise?  How could they be improved for your use?

 

How do you access the forecast product (i.e., Email; web page; telephone recording)?

 

We are considering discontinuing or upgrading the phone recording of the forecast product.  Is that something you currently use?  Would you use it if you could get your specific forecast from it faster?

 

Please Email your feedback to: Peter.GJ.Parsons@odf.oregon.gov

Thank you!

 

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Sunny, very warm and dry weather continues Wednesday under very weak NW flow aloft.  Temperatures will be around 10oF above average.  Mixing becomes good in the afternoon with very light NW winds.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Little change occurs on Thursday, mostly sunny and very warm.  Mixing again is good by afternoon with light SW-W winds.

 

An upper trough off the California coast is expected to push moisture into the region by Friday.  There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening while some clouds keep temperatures down a little.  Mixing will be good with light SW winds.

 

On Saturday flow aloft remains very weak while conditions are mostly sunny and seasonal.  Mixing is good with light W winds.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to N to NE and increases to 10 - 16 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.  Surface wind increases to N to NE at 6 - 12 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.