SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
*********************************************************************
Information Regarding
Smoke Management Forecasts/Instructions:
Like last year, the forecast office
will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m. (closed on weekends
and state holidays).
There will be significant changes this
season (details below):
Written forecasts will be issued in
the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays
unless updates are needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions
for multiple days.
The forecast phone recording at
503-945-7400 has been discontinued.
Please continue to call the ODF
forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke clearance
through October. Beginning in November, those calls should be made to
your local ODF field office (details on that to follow).
Thank you!
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
An upper-level
ridge on Thursday will give the region one more sunny and very warm day, 15-20oF
above seasonal. Mixing heights again
will be slow to rise but become good in the afternoon with very light and
mainly SW winds.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
An upper trough
reaches the coast on Friday while a cold front passes across the area, causing
cooler conditions under partly sunny skies.
The front brings well mixed air for the
afternoon as winds turn W-NW, then there is a slight chance of a shower Friday night.
The weekend turns
much cooler with partly sunny skies. The
upper trough is still on the coast Saturday then it weakens and moves inland by
Sunday. Look for daytime temperatures to
be 10-15oF below normal. Mixing
will be moderate to good for both afternoons with
light NW-N winds.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the
afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to NW to N at 6 - 12
mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1900 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3400 - 4400
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to S to SW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2400 to 3400 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. In the west
transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW
at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon. In
the east transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to
WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW
at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
1700 to 2700 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NNW at
4 - 8 mph. Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4
- 8 mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
1700 to 2700 ft during the morning rising to 2700 to 3700 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 6 -
10 mph. Surface wind NNW to NNE at 6 -
10 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Thursday and
Friday, October 8 and 9, 2026.
==================================================================
For Thursday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through
NNE of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles
to the SSW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. Watch for shifting transport winds. No
additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
For Friday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through NW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
WSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are
available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.