NBM Guidance for CASE (CEFO3)
44.9711N 118.9297W
Elevation 3927 ft
HOURLY TO 24 HOURS:
CEFO3 NBM V5.0 NBH GUIDANCE 8/27/2026 1500 UTC
UTC 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Time (UTC)
PDT 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Time (PDT)
TMP 61 68 74 78 81 84 85 84 82 77 73 69 66 63 60 58 55 54 52 50 49 47 50 52 58 Temperature(F)
TSD 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SD of temp(F)
DPT 43 44 43 42 40 38 38 40 43 44 45 44 42 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 39 40 40 41 Dew point temp(F)
DSD 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 Dew point temp SD(F)
WBG 55 60 65 68 70 70 70 69 67 64 63 59 56 54 53 51 49 48 48 46 46 44 47 49 53 Wet bulb temp(F)
SKY 63 66 51 54 21 25 11 5 2 5 5 6 8 8 12 12 17 17 14 22 26 34 23 22 20 Sky cover(%)
SSD 25 26 26 25 37 29 9 4 2 4 6 6 6 6 15 15 13 17 15 18 39 32 24 30 33 Sky cover SD(%)
WDR 30 29 29 28 27 27 29 31 35 35 36 36 1 6 8 10 8 9 14 17 15 17 15 14 32 Wind dir (deg)
WSP 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Wind spd (kts)
WSD 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Wind spd SD(kts)
GST 3 4 7 10 14 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 12 8 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 Wind gust(kts)
GSD 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Wind gust SD(kts)
P01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-hr PoP(%)
P06 1 1 0 6-hr PoP(%)
Q01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-hr QPF (.01")
T01 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-hr tstm prob(%)
PZR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob ZR(%)
PSN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob Snow(%)
PPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob Sleet/IP(%)
PRA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob of rain(%)
S01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-hr snow(1/10in)
SLV 109110109107106108111114116116116115115115113112112111110109108107106105104 Snow level 100s feet MSL
I01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-hr ice(1/100in)
CIG 230230-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88 Ceiling height*
MVC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Prob cig<=3000ft(%) MVFR
IFC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Prob cig<1000ft(%) IFR
LIC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Prob cig<500ft(%) LIFR
LCB 220220220220220210230190 90-88-88 28 80 80 50 34 28 33-88340-88320320310310 Lowest cloud base*
VIS 100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100 Visibility*
MVV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Prob vsby<=5mi(%) MVFR
IFV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Prob vsby<3mi(%) IFR
LIV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Prob vsby<1mi(%) LIFR
MHT 15 21 32 45 61 71 80 86 68 33 25 21 12 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 6 14 MixHgt 100s feet AGL
TWD 35 27 25 24 24 23 23 24 33 35 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 8 7 9 14 14 12 18 26 Transport wind dir
TWS 4 4 6 8 11 12 13 12 12 12 13 11 10 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 Transport wind spd(kts)
SOL 32 48 62 78 82 78 74 62 47 26 10 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 21 37 Solar rad (10s W/m2)
3-HOURLY TO 60 HOURS:
CEFO3 NBM V5.0 NBS GUIDANCE 8/27/2026 1500 UTC
DT /AUG 28 /AUG 29 /AUG 30
UTC 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 Time (UTC)
PDT 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 Time (PDT)
FHR 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 Forecast Hour
TXN 47 83 45 72 40 Max/Min Temp(F)
XND 3 2 4 3 4 SD of max/min temps(F)
TMP 84 82 69 60 54 49 52 72 81 79 67 59 52 46 48 64 71 69 59 51 45 40 43 Temperature(F)
TSD 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 SD of temp(F)
DPT 38 43 44 40 40 40 40 40 37 39 38 37 37 37 38 38 32 31 30 31 32 32 33 Dew point temp(F)
DSD 2 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 Dew point temp SD(F)
WBG 70 67 59 53 48 46 49 63 69 66 57 51 47 44 45 57 61 57 50 45 41 37 40 Wet bulb temp(F)
SKY 25 2 6 12 17 26 22 20 17 11 14 9 11 3 8 19 26 32 14 19 16 6 8 Sky cover(%)
SSD 29 2 6 15 17 39 30 31 28 23 28 7 8 2 12 25 30 25 14 12 11 8 8 Sky cover SD(%)
WDR 27 35 36 8 9 15 14 31 30 35 36 33 21 18 24 27 27 29 31 28 18 16 17 Wind dir (deg)
WSP 6 7 7 2 0 0 0 3 5 7 4 1 0 0 1 6 7 8 4 1 1 1 2 Wind spd (kts)
WSD 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 Wind spd SD(kts)
GST 16 16 16 5 2 2 2 7 15 15 11 4 2 2 3 14 17 17 11 3 3 3 5 Wind gust(kts)
GSD 2 2 4 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 5 4 2 2 2 Wind gust SD(kts)
P06 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 2 6-hr PoP(%)
P12 1 0 2 1 2 12-hr PoP(%)
Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6-hr QPF(.01in)
Q12 0 0 0 0 0 12-hr QPF(.01in)
DUR 0 0 0 0 0 Duration of precip(hrs)
T03 1 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 3-hr Tstm prob(%)
T06 3 4 0 0 4 4 1 0 3 2 0 6-hr Tstm prob(%)
T12 4 4 4 3 2 12-hr Tstm prob(%)
PZR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob ZR(%)
PSN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob Snow(%)
PPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob Sleet/IP(%)
PRA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob of rain(%)
S06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6-hr snow(1/10in)
SLV 110120120110110110100110110110110110 97 89 83 82 84 85 79 74 72 71 70 Snow level 100s feet MSL
I06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6-hr ice(1/100in)
CIG -88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88 Ceiling height*
IFC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Prob cig<1000ft(%) IFR
LCB 210 90 28 50 33-88310290190190 90 50 13 50 20 34 46 50120 34120 11180 Lowest cloud base*
VIS 100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100 Visibility*
IFV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Prob vsby<3mi(%) IFR
MHT 71 68 21 5 4 3 6 29 69 50 10 4 3 1 17 49 70 70 15 5 2 2 9 MixHgt 100s feet AGL
TWD 23 33 0 2 8 14 18 23 24 34 0 34 25 23 25 25 25 27 31 28 20 17 20 Transport wind dir
TWS 12 12 11 6 4 3 3 6 11 11 11 6 5 5 6 10 15 14 11 7 5 6 5 Transport wind spd(kts)
SOL 78 47 3 1 0 0 21 63 81 48 3 2 0 0 16 39 80 54 16 8 0 0 6 Solar rad (10s W/m2)
DAILY TO 7 DAYS:
CEFO3 NBM V5.0 NBE GUIDANCE 8/27/2026 1500 UTC
FRI 28 |SAT 29 |SUN 30 |MON 31 |TUE 01 |WED 02 |THU 03 |FRI 04 CLIMO
UTC 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12 Time (UTC)
PDT 05 17 05 17 05 17 05 17 05 17 05 17 05 17 05 Time (PDT)
FHR 21| 33 45| 57 69| 81 93|105 117|129 141|153 165|177 189 Forecast Hour
TXN 47| 83 45| 72 40| 75 43| 84 48| 79 45| 73 44| 71 41 44 78 Max/Min Temp(F)
XND 3| 2 4| 3 4| 5 4| 4 4| 5 4| 7 4| 9 6 SD of max/min temps(F)
TMP 49| 79 46| 69 40| 73 44| 80 48| 76 46| 71 46| 69 43 Temperature(F)
TSD 1| 2 2| 3 2| 5 3| 3 3| 6 3| 8 4| 9 5 SD of temp(F)
DPT 40| 39 37| 31 32| 24 26| 30 31| 33 38| 35 37| 36 37 Dew point temp(F)
DSD 3| 3 2| 5 4| 5 4| 3 5| 6 5| 8 6| 7 6 Dew point temp SD(F)
WBG 46| 66 44| 57 37| 59 39| 64 43| 62 43| 60 43| 58 41 Wet bulb temp(F)
SKY 26| 11 3| 32 6| 8 14| 18 51| 46 47| 45 43| 38 22 Sky cover(%)
SSD 39| 23 2| 25 8| 10 30| 28 30| 28 19| 26 26| 27 18 Sky cover SD(%)
WDR 15| 35 18| 29 16| 27 12| 33 13| 28 15| 28 15| 29 14 Wind dir (deg)
WSP 0| 7 0| 8 1| 4 2| 6 0| 6 1| 6 2| 7 2 Wind spd (kts)
WSD 1| 2 0| 2 1| 1 1| 3 1| 2 1| 3 2| 3 2 Wind spd SD(kts)
GST 2| 15 2| 17 3| 12 5| 16 2| 16 4| 17 6| 17 5 Wind gust(kts)
GSD 1| 2 1| 2 2| 2 2| 3 2| 3 2| 4 4| 4 4 Wind gust SD(kts)
P12 1| 0 2| 1 2| 1 1| 0 1| 15 13| 23 23| 34 19 -99-99 12-hr PoP(%)
Q12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 2 0| 0 0| 4 0 12-hr QPF(.01in)
Q24 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 2| 0| 4 14 24-hr QPF(.01in)
DUR 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 1 0 Duration of precip(hrs)
T12 4| 4 4| 3 2| 1 1| 3 3| 15 10| 6 6| 12 8 12-hr Tstm prob(%)
PZR 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 Cond prob ZR(%)
PSN 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 Cond prob Snow(%)
PPL 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 Cond prob Sleet/IP(%)
PRA 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 2| 19 10| 22 24| 21 17 Cond prob of rain(%)
S12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 12-hr snow(1/10in)
S24 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0 24-hr snow(1/10in)
SLV 108|110 89| 85 71| 85 92|105 100| 99 88| 94 85| 92 83 Snow level 100s feet MSL
I12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 12-hr ice(1/100in)
SOL 4| 50 1| 47 6| 47 6| 43 4| 21 5| 37 4| 44 5 Solar rad (10s W/m2)
DAY 8, 9 AND 10:
CEFO3 NBM V5.0 NBX GUIDANCE 8/27/2026 1500 UTC
SAT 05| SUN 06| MON 07
UTC 00 12 |00 12 |00 12 Time (UTC)
PDT 17 05 |17 05 |17 05 Time (PDT)
FHR 201 213|225 237|249 261 Forecast Hour
TXN 72 41| 74 43| 76 44 Max/Min Temp(F)
XND 10 7| 10 6| 9 6 SD of max/min temps(F)
TMP 69 43| 71 44| 72 45 Temperature(F)
TSD 10 6| 9 6| 9 6 SD of temp(F)
DPT 35 35| 36 36| 37 36 Dew point temp(F)
DSD 8 6| 8 7| 8 7 Dew point temp SD(F)
WBG 58 41| 60 41| 61 41 Wet bulb temp(F)
SKY 19 22| 31 23| 23 21 Sky cover(%)
SSD 15 16| 31 13| 11 11 Sky cover SD(%)
WDR 31 15| 32 17| 32 6 Wind dir (deg)
WSP 6 1| 6 1| 5 1 Wind spd (kts)
WSD 3 1| 2 1| 2 2 Wind spd SD(kts)
GST 16 4| 16 3| 15 3 Wind gust(kts)
GSD 4 3| 3 2| 3 3 Wind gust SD(kts)
P12 24 14| 17 20| 18 15 12-hr PoP(%)
Q12 0 0| 0 2| 0 0 12-hr QPF(.01in)
Q24 0| 2| 0 24-hr QPF(.01in)
DUR 0 0| 0 1| 0 0 Duration of precip(hrs)
PZR 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 Cond prob ZR(%)
PSN 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 Cond prob Snow(%)
PPL 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 Cond prob Sleet/IP(%)
PRA 24 12| 26 15| 16 14 Cond prob of rain(%)
S12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 12-hr snow(1/10in)
S24 0| 0| 0 24-hr snow(1/10in)
SLV 88 83| 91 85| 95 91 Snow level 100s feet MSL
I12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 12-hr ice(1/100in)
SOL 20 17| 24 8| 24 18 Solar rad (10s W/m2)
STANDARD DEVIATION AND THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES:
CEFO3 NBM V5.0 NBP GUIDANCE 8/27/2026 1300 UTC
FRI 28| SAT 29| SUN 30| MON 31| TUE 01| WED 02| THU 03| FRI 04| SAT 05|
UTC 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 Time (UTC)
PDT 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 Time (PDT)
FHR 23| 35 47| 59 71| 83 95|107 119|131 143|155 167|179 191|203 215|227 Forecast Hour
TXNMN 49| 83 48| 72 41| 75 43| 84 48| 79 45| 73 44| 71 41| 72 41| 72 Mean min/max temp(F)
TXNSD 3| 2 4| 3 4| 5 4| 4 4| 5 4| 7 4| 9 6| 10 7| 10 SD min/max temp(F)
TXNP1 45| 80 44| 68 36| 68 38| 80 43| 72 39| 65 39| 61 35| 60 33| 60 10th percentile min/max temp(F)
TXNP2 47| 81 45| 70 37| 72 41| 82 46| 77 42| 68 41| 64 37| 63 36| 63 25th percentile min/max temp(F)
TXNP5 48| 83 46| 73 39| 76 43| 84 48| 80 45| 73 45| 70 40| 70 39| 70 50th percentile min/max temp(F)
TXNP7 52| 84 52| 75 45| 78 47| 87 52| 83 47| 80 48| 79 45| 80 46| 80 75th percentile min/max temp(F)
TXNP9 53| 85 54| 76 46| 81 48| 88 53| 84 50| 84 49| 84 50| 85 49| 85 90th percentile min/max temp(F)
WSPP1 0| 4 0| 5 0| 2 1| 3 0| 3 0| 3 0| 3 0| 3 0| 3 10th percentile wnd(kts)
WSPP2 0| 5 0| 7 1| 3 1| 4 0| 4 1| 4 1| 4 1| 4 1| 4 25th percentile wnd(kts)
WSPP5 0| 7 0| 8 1| 4 2| 6 1| 6 1| 6 2| 7 2| 6 2| 6 50th percentile wnd(kts)
WSPP7 1| 8 1| 9 2| 5 3| 8 1| 8 2| 8 3| 8 3| 7 3| 7 75th percentile wnd(kts)
WSPP9 1| 9 1| 9 2| 6 3| 9 2| 10 3| 10 4| 10 4| 9 3| 9 90th percentile wnd(kts)
W24P1 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 10th percentile 24hr sustained wnd exceedance(kts)
W24P2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 25th percentile 24hr sustained wnd exceedance(kts)
W24P5 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 50th percentile 24hr sustained wnd exceedance(kts)
W24P7 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 75th percentile 24hr sustained wnd exceedance(kts)
W24P9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 90th percentile 24hr sustained wnd exceedance(kts)
G24P1 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 10th percentile 24hr wnd gust exceedance(kts)
G24P2 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 25th percentile 24hr wnd gust exceedance(kts)
G24P5 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 18 50th percentile 24hr wnd gust exceedance(kts)
G24P7 | 21 | 20 | 22 | 16 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 22 75th percentile 24hr wnd gust exceedance(kts)
G24P9 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 19 | 23 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 26 90th percentile 24hr wnd gust exceedance(kts)
Q24P1 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 10th percentile 24hr QPF(1/100in)
Q24P2 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 25th percentile 24hr QPF(1/100in)
Q24P5 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 50th percentile 24hr QPF(1/100in)
Q24P7 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 2| 17| 2| 75th percentile 24hr QPF(1/100in)
Q24P9 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 17| 47| 65| 34| 90th percentile 24hr QPF(1/100in)
S24P1 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 10th percentile 24hr snow accum(1/10in)
S24P2 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 25th percentile 24hr snow accum(1/10in)
S24P5 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 50th percentile 24hr snow accum(1/10in)
S24P7 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 75th percentile 24hr snow accum(1/10in)
S24P9 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 90th percentile 24hr snow accum(1/10in)
I24P1 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 10th percentile 24hr ice accum(1/100in)
I24P2 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 25th percentile 24hr ice accum(1/100in)
I24P5 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 50th percentile 24hr ice accum(1/100in)
I24P7 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 75th percentile 24hr ice accum(1/100in)
I24P9 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 90th percentile 24hr ice accum(1/100in)
SLPP1 016|008 014|010 016|009 010|004 009|006 013|008 013|009 012|011 013|010 10th percentile MSLP(mb)
SLPP2 016|009 015|011 018|011 012|005 011|007 014|010 015|012 015|013 016|012 25th percentile MSLP(mb)
SLPP5 017|010 016|012 018|012 013|006 013|009 016|012 018|014 018|014 019|015 50th percentile MSLP(mb)
SLPP7 017|010 016|013 020|014 016|008 014|010 017|014 020|016 021|017 021|016 75th percentile MSLP(mb)
SLPP9 018|011 017|014 020|015 018|009 015|012 018|016 022|018 023|019 023|018 90th percentile MSLP(mb)