NBM Guidance for AURORA STATE (KUAO)
45.2466N 122.7710W
Elevation 190 ft
HOURLY TO 24 HOURS:
KUAO NBM V5.0 NBH GUIDANCE 8/27/2026 1500 UTC
UTC 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Time (UTC)
PDT 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Time (PDT)
TMP 62 65 68 70 73 74 75 76 76 75 73 69 67 65 63 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 56 59 61 Temperature(F)
TSD 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 SD of temp(F)
DPT 54 54 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 53 53 53 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 53 54 54 54 Dew point temp(F)
DSD 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Dew point temp SD(F)
WBG 59 61 64 67 68 69 69 68 67 67 66 63 61 60 59 58 57 56 56 55 55 54 56 57 59 Wet bulb temp(F)
SKY 34 31 28 22 28 21 23 24 18 7 5 9 19 14 26 34 58 64 70 67 78 51 69 53 35 Sky cover(%)
SSD 28 30 30 28 28 21 23 22 21 19 18 11 25 18 32 35 36 31 26 23 19 31 30 26 23 Sky cover SD(%)
WDR 22 21 22 23 24 26 26 27 27 29 30 31 33 34 36 36 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 Wind dir (deg)
WSP 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 0 3 4 Wind spd (kts)
WSD 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Wind spd SD(kts)
GST 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 Wind gust(kts)
GSD 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 Wind gust SD(kts)
P01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1-hr PoP(%)
P06 0 0 1 6-hr PoP(%)
Q01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-hr QPF (.01")
T01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-hr tstm prob(%)
PZR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob ZR(%)
PSN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob Snow(%)
PPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob Sleet/IP(%)
PRA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob of rain(%)
S01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-hr snow(1/10in)
SLV 70 71 74 77 80 81 82 83 83 83 83 82 83 83 83 83 83 82 82 82 81 81 81 80 80 Snow level 100s feet MSL
I01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-hr ice(1/100in)
CIG 27 35 35 45-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88150130 60 60 45 35 35 35 35 Ceiling height*
MVC 45 37 27 17 8 6 4 1 1 1 3 4 3 3 3 4 7 9 11 14 18 23 26 28 24 Prob cig<=3000ft(%) MVFR
IFC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 2 Prob cig<1000ft(%) IFR
LIC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 Prob cig<500ft(%) LIFR
LCB 27 35 35 45 43 46 49 60 80140140160130100120120120 50 50 50 41 35 35 35 35 Lowest cloud base*
VIS 100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100 Visibility*
MVV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 Prob vsby<=5mi(%) MVFR
IFV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Prob vsby<3mi(%) IFR
LIV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Prob vsby<1mi(%) LIFR
MHT 24 29 39 48 55 56 60 59 56 49 31 7 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 12 21 MixHgt 100s feet AGL
TWD 22 21 23 23 24 26 26 27 28 29 31 32 34 34 36 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 Transport wind dir
TWS 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 Transport wind spd(kts)
SOL 30 43 53 70 74 70 66 64 50 29 14 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 15 27 Solar rad (10s W/m2)
3-HOURLY TO 60 HOURS:
KUAO NBM V5.0 NBS GUIDANCE 8/27/2026 1500 UTC
DT /AUG 28 /AUG 29 /AUG 30
UTC 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 Time (UTC)
PDT 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 Time (PDT)
FHR 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 Forecast Hour
TXN 55 79 53 75 51 Max/Min Temp(F)
XND 2 3 2 3 3 SD of max/min temps(F)
TMP 74 76 69 63 59 56 59 66 74 77 69 62 57 54 56 63 70 71 66 59 54 52 54 Temperature(F)
TSD 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 SD of temp(F)
DPT 52 52 53 54 54 54 54 54 52 49 50 51 51 51 52 51 48 46 47 50 50 50 51 Dew point temp(F)
DSD 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 Dew point temp SD(F)
WBG 69 67 63 59 56 55 57 64 70 68 61 58 54 52 55 61 66 64 58 55 52 50 53 Wet bulb temp(F)
SKY 21 18 9 26 64 78 53 21 10 11 35 50 25 38 56 54 47 37 28 16 28 34 63 Sky cover(%)
SSD 21 21 11 32 31 19 26 17 24 12 32 27 21 26 16 25 23 25 17 12 18 25 23 Sky cover SD(%)
WDR 26 27 31 36 1 2 1 1 35 34 33 33 31 24 22 25 28 30 31 33 34 2 2 Wind dir (deg)
WSP 7 7 5 5 3 3 3 4 5 5 7 5 3 0 2 4 5 7 6 3 0 0 0 Wind spd (kts)
WSD 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 Wind spd SD(kts)
GST 10 10 8 7 5 4 4 6 8 8 13 7 4 2 4 7 8 10 11 4 3 3 3 Wind gust(kts)
GSD 2 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 4 3 2 2 2 Wind gust SD(kts)
P06 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 16 3 0 6-hr PoP(%)
P12 0 1 0 16 3 12-hr PoP(%)
Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6-hr QPF(.01in)
Q12 0 0 0 0 0 12-hr QPF(.01in)
DUR 0 0 0 0 0 Duration of precip(hrs)
T03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3-hr Tstm prob(%)
T06 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 6-hr Tstm prob(%)
T12 0 0 0 4 0 12-hr Tstm prob(%)
PZR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob ZR(%)
PSN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob Snow(%)
PPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cond prob Sleet/IP(%)
PRA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Cond prob of rain(%)
S06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6-hr snow(1/10in)
SLV 81 83 82 83 82 81 80 80 81 80 80 79 72 73 68 64 70 70 73 69 67 65 65 Snow level 100s feet MSL
I06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6-hr ice(1/100in)
CIG -88-88-88-88130 45 35-88-88-88-88-88 45 38 35 39-88-88-88-88 41 39 36 Ceiling height*
IFC 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 8 Prob cig<1000ft(%) IFR
LCB 46 80160120 50 41 35 60 70 50 49 30 45 33 16 24 42 50110110 41 39 19 Lowest cloud base*
VIS 100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100 Visibility*
IFV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 Prob vsby<3mi(%) IFR
MHT 56 56 7 5 4 4 12 37 51 60 9 9 3 3 9 44 67 71 13 5 4 4 12 MixHgt 100s feet AGL
TWD 26 28 32 36 1 1 1 36 33 32 34 35 34 36 22 26 28 30 32 0 1 1 3 Transport wind dir
TWS 9 7 8 7 5 5 5 4 5 6 10 7 4 3 5 5 7 7 9 6 4 4 5 Transport wind spd(kts)
SOL 70 50 3 2 0 0 15 48 81 53 3 2 0 0 2 29 33 27 16 8 0 0 4 Solar rad (10s W/m2)
DAILY TO 7 DAYS:
KUAO NBM V5.0 NBE GUIDANCE 8/27/2026 1500 UTC
FRI 28 |SAT 29 |SUN 30 |MON 31 |TUE 01 |WED 02 |THU 03 |FRI 04 CLIMO
UTC 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12 Time (UTC)
PDT 05 17 05 17 05 17 05 17 05 17 05 17 05 17 05 Time (PDT)
FHR 21| 33 45| 57 69| 81 93|105 117|129 141|153 165|177 189 Forecast Hour
TXN 55| 79 53| 75 51| 76 52| 79 54| 75 53| 72 53| 72 51 53 79 Max/Min Temp(F)
XND 2| 3 2| 3 3| 3 3| 3 2| 4 2| 6 3| 6 4 SD of max/min temps(F)
TMP 56| 77 54| 71 52| 72 53| 76 55| 72 55| 68 55| 70 54 Temperature(F)
TSD 1| 2 2| 2 1| 2 2| 4 2| 5 2| 6 3| 6 3 SD of temp(F)
DPT 54| 49 51| 46 50| 46 50| 48 52| 51 52| 52 53| 51 52 Dew point temp(F)
DSD 1| 1 1| 3 1| 2 1| 3 2| 3 2| 5 2| 4 3 Dew point temp SD(F)
WBG 55| 68 52| 64 50| 64 51| 67 54| 65 54| 63 54| 64 52 Wet bulb temp(F)
SKY 78| 11 38| 37 34| 24 34| 45 64| 34 72| 51 59| 35 40 Sky cover(%)
SSD 19| 12 26| 25 25| 23 28| 26 21| 21 22| 27 30| 22 20 Sky cover SD(%)
WDR 2| 34 24| 30 2| 0 1| 28 21| 25 19| 23 19| 25 24 Wind dir (deg)
WSP 3| 5 0| 7 0| 6 0| 4 3| 8 7| 8 5| 7 4 Wind spd (kts)
WSD 2| 2 2| 2 2| 2 2| 3 3| 3 3| 3 4| 3 3 Wind spd SD(kts)
GST 4| 8 2| 10 3| 10 2| 6 4| 12 11| 15 7| 12 6 Wind gust(kts)
GSD 2| 3 2| 3 2| 3 2| 3 4| 5 7| 7 8| 6 7 Wind gust SD(kts)
P12 0| 1 0| 16 3| 0 1| 0 6| 24 28| 47 47| 44 33 0 11 12-hr PoP(%)
Q12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 3 0| 18 17| 15 10 12-hr QPF(.01in)
Q24 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 3| 35| 25 23 24-hr QPF(.01in)
DUR 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 4 4| 4 3 Duration of precip(hrs)
T12 0| 0 0| 4 0| 0 1| 1 1| 11 4| 10 7| 13 7 12-hr Tstm prob(%)
PZR 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 Cond prob ZR(%)
PSN 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 Cond prob Snow(%)
PPL 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 Cond prob Sleet/IP(%)
PRA 0| 0 0| 1 1| 0 0| 5 20| 20 27| 46 38| 40 29 Cond prob of rain(%)
S12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 12-hr snow(1/10in)
S24 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0 24-hr snow(1/10in)
SLV 81| 80 73| 70 65| 85 90| 92 87| 82 82| 84 76| 78 74 Snow level 100s feet MSL
I12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 12-hr ice(1/100in)
SOL 4| 45 1| 23 6| 43 7| 41 5| 29 2| 6 2| 11 2 Solar rad (10s W/m2)
DAY 8, 9 AND 10:
KUAO NBM V5.0 NBX GUIDANCE 8/27/2026 1500 UTC
SAT 05| SUN 06| MON 07
UTC 00 12 |00 12 |00 12 Time (UTC)
PDT 17 05 |17 05 |17 05 Time (PDT)
FHR 201 213|225 237|249 261 Forecast Hour
TXN 75 52| 78 54| 80 55 Max/Min Temp(F)
XND 8 5| 8 4| 8 3 SD of max/min temps(F)
TMP 73 54| 76 55| 78 56 Temperature(F)
TSD 8 4| 9 4| 9 4 SD of temp(F)
DPT 51 50| 51 50| 50 51 Dew point temp(F)
DSD 5 4| 5 5| 7 5 Dew point temp SD(F)
WBG 65 53| 67 53| 68 54 Wet bulb temp(F)
SKY 23 31| 30 41| 22 32 Sky cover(%)
SSD 22 31| 26 12| 11 15 Sky cover SD(%)
WDR 32 0| 36 4| 35 2 Wind dir (deg)
WSP 7 4| 6 4| 6 3 Wind spd (kts)
WSD 3 3| 3 3| 3 3 Wind spd SD(kts)
GST 12 4| 10 4| 9 4 Wind gust(kts)
GSD 6 5| 5 6| 5 5 Wind gust SD(kts)
P12 28 15| 11 19| 16 13 12-hr PoP(%)
Q12 3 3| 0 2| 1 0 12-hr QPF(.01in)
Q24 6| 2| 1 24-hr QPF(.01in)
DUR 1 1| 0 1| 0 0 Duration of precip(hrs)
PZR 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 Cond prob ZR(%)
PSN 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 Cond prob Snow(%)
PPL 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 Cond prob Sleet/IP(%)
PRA 25 17| 16 12| 18 13 Cond prob of rain(%)
S12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 12-hr snow(1/10in)
S24 0| 0| 0 24-hr snow(1/10in)
SLV 79 76| 82 80| 84 86 Snow level 100s feet MSL
I12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0 12-hr ice(1/100in)
SOL 13 12| 20 11| 25 18 Solar rad (10s W/m2)
STANDARD DEVIATION AND THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES:
KUAO NBM V5.0 NBP GUIDANCE 8/27/2026 1300 UTC
FRI 28| SAT 29| SUN 30| MON 31| TUE 01| WED 02| THU 03| FRI 04| SAT 05|
UTC 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 12| 00 Time (UTC)
PDT 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 05| 17 Time (PDT)
FHR 23| 35 47| 59 71| 83 95|107 119|131 143|155 167|179 191|203 215|227 Forecast Hour
TXNMN 55| 79 53| 75 51| 76 52| 79 54| 75 53| 72 53| 72 51| 75 52| 75 Mean min/max temp(F)
TXNSD 2| 3 2| 3 3| 3 3| 3 2| 4 2| 6 3| 6 4| 8 5| 8 SD min/max temp(F)
TXNP1 53| 75 50| 71 47| 72 49| 74 51| 70 50| 63 49| 66 45| 66 45| 66 10th percentile min/max temp(F)
TXNP2 54| 78 51| 73 48| 73 50| 77 52| 72 51| 68 52| 68 49| 69 50| 69 25th percentile min/max temp(F)
TXNP5 55| 79 52| 75 51| 77 52| 79 54| 75 52| 72 53| 72 52| 73 52| 73 50th percentile min/max temp(F)
TXNP7 57| 81 55| 77 54| 78 55| 82 56| 78 54| 75 54| 76 54| 79 54| 79 75th percentile min/max temp(F)
TXNP9 58| 82 56| 79 55| 79 56| 84 57| 80 55| 78 56| 80 56| 87 57| 87 90th percentile min/max temp(F)
WSPP1 0| 3 0| 4 0| 4 0| 0 0| 3 0| 3 0| 2 0| 0 0| 0 10th percentile wnd(kts)
WSPP2 0| 4 0| 5 0| 5 0| 2 0| 5 3| 5 0| 4 0| 4 0| 3 25th percentile wnd(kts)
WSPP5 3| 5 0| 6 0| 6 0| 4 3| 7 5| 7 4| 6 4| 7 4| 6 50th percentile wnd(kts)
WSPP7 4| 7 4| 8 3| 7 2| 5 5| 9 7| 9 7| 9 6| 9 5| 7 75th percentile wnd(kts)
WSPP9 5| 8 5| 9 4| 8 3| 8 7| 10 10| 11 10| 11 8| 10 8| 10 90th percentile wnd(kts)
W24P1 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 10th percentile 24hr sustained wnd exceedance(kts)
W24P2 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 25th percentile 24hr sustained wnd exceedance(kts)
W24P5 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 50th percentile 24hr sustained wnd exceedance(kts)
W24P7 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 75th percentile 24hr sustained wnd exceedance(kts)
W24P9 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 15 90th percentile 24hr sustained wnd exceedance(kts)
G24P1 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 10th percentile 24hr wnd gust exceedance(kts)
G24P2 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 25th percentile 24hr wnd gust exceedance(kts)
G24P5 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 17 50th percentile 24hr wnd gust exceedance(kts)
G24P7 | 17 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 15 | 21 | 27 | 23 | 23 75th percentile 24hr wnd gust exceedance(kts)
G24P9 | 18 | 22 | 21 | 16 | 17 | 25 | 30 | 31 | 26 90th percentile 24hr wnd gust exceedance(kts)
Q24P1 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 10th percentile 24hr QPF(1/100in)
Q24P2 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 25th percentile 24hr QPF(1/100in)
Q24P5 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 11| 2| 0| 50th percentile 24hr QPF(1/100in)
Q24P7 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 9| 73| 39| 12| 75th percentile 24hr QPF(1/100in)
Q24P9 | 0| 1| 0| 0| 26| 101| 91| 41| 90th percentile 24hr QPF(1/100in)
S24P1 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 10th percentile 24hr snow accum(1/10in)
S24P2 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 25th percentile 24hr snow accum(1/10in)
S24P5 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 50th percentile 24hr snow accum(1/10in)
S24P7 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 75th percentile 24hr snow accum(1/10in)
S24P9 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 90th percentile 24hr snow accum(1/10in)
I24P1 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 10th percentile 24hr ice accum(1/100in)
I24P2 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 25th percentile 24hr ice accum(1/100in)
I24P5 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 50th percentile 24hr ice accum(1/100in)
I24P7 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 75th percentile 24hr ice accum(1/100in)
I24P9 | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 90th percentile 24hr ice accum(1/100in)
SLPP1 017|014 018|015 017|011 011|007 011|010 013|011 012|012 014|011 013|010 10th percentile MSLP(mb)
SLPP2 018|014 018|016 018|013 012|009 012|012 014|014 015|014 015|014 015|012 25th percentile MSLP(mb)
SLPP5 018|015 018|017 019|015 013|010 014|013 016|015 018|016 017|016 017|014 50th percentile MSLP(mb)
SLPP7 018|015 019|018 020|017 015|011 015|014 018|017 019|019 020|017 019|016 75th percentile MSLP(mb)
SLPP9 019|016 020|019 021|018 016|012 016|015 019|019 022|021 022|019 021|018 90th percentile MSLP(mb)